SiC power-electronics market
The silicon-carbide (SiC) power-electronics market is Coherent’s primary non-photonics adjacency. Coherent (via legacy II-VI Incorporated, the original SiC substrate producer outside Cree/Wolfspeed) is one of the global tier-one SiC substrate suppliers, with capacity in 150 mm and ramping 200 mm wafer formats. The structural setup as of April 2026 is materially different from the standalone-Coherent setup pre-2023 because of the DENSO + Mitsubishi Electric $1B joint-venture investment that separated the SiC business into a partially-owned subsidiary in December 2023.
Market sizing
| Year | SiC substrate TAM ($B) ⚠ | SiC device TAM ($B) ⚠ | Combined ($B) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ~$2 | ~$3 | ~$5 | Yole Développement / IDTechEx aggregator-house |
| 2025 | ~$2.3 | ~$3.5 | ~$5.8 | Yole estimate |
| 2026 | ~$2.5–3 | ~$4–4.5 | ~$5.5–7 | Yole / IDTechEx |
| 2028 | ~$3.5–4 | ~$6–8 | ~$10–12 | EV-led growth baseline |
⚠ Aggregator-house estimates throughout. The substrate-vs-device split is meaningful for Coherent’s positioning: Coherent’s franchise is substrate-and-epitaxy, not finished SiC devices. Wolfspeed (Cree) competes across both substrate and devices; Coherent is purely in the upstream materials layer.
Demand drivers
| Application | Share of SiC demand | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| EV inverters (traction, OBC, DC-DC) | ~70% | Strong growth; mass-market EV transition through 2030 |
| Datacenter power (PSU, server power supplies) | ~10% | Inflecting upward with AI-cluster power density |
| Industrial power (motor drive, solar inverter) | ~10% | Stable growth |
| Rail traction, grid, aerospace | ~5% | Niche, slow growth |
| RF (5G base station) | ~5% | Mature |
EV adoption is the dominant variable — automakers’ shift to 800V architectures (which require SiC, not silicon) is the principal demand pull. Chinese, European, and US EV makers are the primary buyers. The 2024–2025 EV-cycle slowdown in the US and Europe muted SiC demand growth in those regions; Chinese SiC demand has remained robust.
Coherent-specific position
The December 2023 transaction with DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric is the structural shift in Coherent’s SiC franchise:
- DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric each invested $500M for a 12.5% non-controlling interest in Silicon Carbide LLC (Coherent’s SiC subsidiary). Coherent retains 75% ownership (Coherent press release Dec 4, 2023) ✓.
- Long-term supply agreements with both DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric for 150 mm and 200 mm SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers.
- All operating and capital expenses of the Business funded by the Business — meaning Coherent’s parent-level capex burden for SiC capacity is partly reduced.
- Substrate-and-epitaxy focus — Coherent does not produce finished SiC MOSFETs/diodes; it sells substrates and epi wafers to device-makers (Wolfspeed, STMicro, Onsemi, Infineon, ROHM, Mitsubishi, DENSO).
This structure insulates Coherent’s parent balance sheet from SiC capex risk while preserving share of SiC-business value through the 75% ownership.
Wolfspeed comparison
Wolfspeed (formerly Cree’s power-electronics business) is the most-comparable peer:
| Metric | Coherent (Materials segment + SiC sub) | Wolfspeed |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | Materials segment: $954M (FY ended Jun 2025) | ~$760M FY ended Jun 2025 |
| SiC product scope | Substrate + epitaxy (no devices) | Substrate + devices (full-stack) |
| Wafer-size capability | 150 mm production; 200 mm ramping | 200 mm fab in Mohawk Valley NY |
| Capital structure | DENSO + Mitsubishi $1B JV; parent partly insulated | High debt; capacity over-build during 2022–2024 |
| Stock-price trajectory | Stable / outperforming | Wolfspeed went into Chapter 11 Q4 2024 (delisted; emerged restructured) ⚠ |
| Operating margin | Materials segment profitable | Wolfspeed deep operating losses |
Wolfspeed’s distress through 2024 is partly a share gift to Coherent — customers requalifying away from Wolfspeed often land at Coherent or STM. The DENSO + Mitsubishi structure also locks in two of Wolfspeed’s biggest historical customers (Mitsubishi was a long-standing Cree/Wolfspeed customer; DENSO is a tier-one Toyota supplier).
Chinese substrate-supply pressure
The structural risk to the Western SiC franchise is Chinese suppliers scaling 150 mm and 200 mm capacity at lower cost basis. The leading names:
| Chinese SiC supplier | Capacity status | Western customer penetration |
|---|---|---|
| TankeBlue | 150 mm production; 200 mm ramping CY2026 | Limited; primarily domestic-China |
| SICC | 150 mm production scale; 200 mm in qual | Some European-tier qualifications |
| Synlight | Smaller scale | Domestic-China |
| ZG Crystal | Smaller scale | Domestic-China |
Chinese SiC suppliers are pricing aggressively in the domestic-China market (where Western suppliers face trade-restriction friction) and are increasingly qualifying with European EV-makers. The risk for Coherent is price compression on the merchant SiC substrate market — particularly on 150 mm, which is a maturing category.
The mitigant: Coherent’s 200 mm wafer-size lead (in qualification with major customers) preserves a generation-ahead premium against Chinese 150-mm-only competitors. The DENSO + Mitsubishi JV also locks in long-term supply commitments at floor pricing.
SiC scenarios for Coherent
| Scenario | Materials-segment FY2028 revenue | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Bull — EV acceleration + 200 mm leadership | $1.5–2.0B | EV adoption inflects; Coherent 200 mm penetration rises |
| Base — measured EV growth + Chinese pricing pressure | $1.0–1.3B | Steady SiC volume; modest ASP pressure |
| Bear — Chinese substrate price war | $0.7–0.9B | ASP compression dominates volume growth |
What would change the SiC thesis
- EV adoption inflection (positive or negative) — EV-cycle shape is the dominant demand variable.
- Chinese 200 mm production scaling at low cost — would compress ASPs structurally.
- Wolfspeed restructured re-emergence — could be share-positive (capacity reduction) or share-negative (re-entry of competitor).
- Coherent strategic divestiture of remaining 75% in Silicon Carbide LLC — has been considered (analyst speculation; no announcement); a full-divestiture would crystallize value but lose the 75% upside.
Cross-link
- 02_technology SiC substrates — process-level detail
- 05_financials segment revenue mix — Materials segment
- 05_financials margins and pricing — SiC ASP environment
- 03_ecosystem competitors — Wolfspeed, STM, Chinese suppliers
Sources
- Coherent SiC $1B investment from DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric press release Dec 4, 2023 ✓
- Coherent SiC $1B investment announcement Oct 10, 2023 ✓
- DENSO press release on SiC LLC investment ✓
- Coherent FY2025 results press release ✓
- Yole Développement SiC market estimates ⚠
- IDTechEx SiC market estimates ⚠